- Danielle Smith’s Pro-Fossil Fuel Agenda: Alberta Premier Danielle Smith advocates doubling oil production, aligning with oil giants like Enbridge and promoting a narrative of long-term hydrocarbon reliance.
- Ideological Divide: A clash between the “oil and gas forever” narrative (backed by OPEC projections) and the clean energy transition advocated by bodies like the International Energy Agency (IEA).
- Global Demand Projections: OPEC forecasts rising oil demand until 2050, driven by emerging economies, while the IEA predicts peak oil demand by 2030 due to renewable adoption.
- Geopolitical Tensions: Energy policies are increasingly tied to national security, with the US and China competing for clean energy dominance.
- Criticism of Smith’s Strategy: Accusations of appeasement towards Trump’s tariffs and prioritising provincial interests over national unity in Canada.
The global energy landscape is entrenched in a ideological battle between proponents of fossil fuels and advocates of renewable energy. At the heart of this debate is Danielle Smith, Premier of Alberta, whose unyielding support for expanding oil production has sparked controversy. Smith recently pledged to double Alberta’s oil output, collaborating with Enbridge CEO Greg Ebel, a move cheered by fossil fuel advocates but criticised as short-sighted by environmentalists.
This stance aligns with OPEC’s World Oil Outlook, which projects global oil demand rising to 120 million barrels per day by 2050, largely driven by emerging economies in the Global South. OPEC argues that renewables will supplement—not replace—fossil fuels, a view championed by Smith and industry figures like Chris Wright, CEO of Liberty Energy. Conversely, the IEA forecasts peak oil demand by 2030, citing rapid electrification and policy shifts towards wind, solar, and EVs.
The divide extends beyond data. Smith’s refusal to join a united Canadian front against Trump’s proposed 25% tariffs—a strategy supported by other conservative premiers—has drawn accusations of appeasement. Critics argue her approach prioritises Alberta’s oil interests over national cohesion, risking Canada’s position in a geopolitically volatile energy market.
Meanwhile, recent developments underscore the urgency of this debate. In late September 2023, Alberta announced C$20 billion in new oil sands investments, doubling down on Smith’s vision. Simultaneously, the IEA’s Net Zero Roadmap 2023 reiterated calls for a 25% reduction in fossil fuel use by 2030, highlighting the growing dissonance between regional policies and global climate targets.
The tension reflects broader geopolitical strategies. The US’s Inflation Reduction Act aims to bolster clean energy independence, reducing reliance on Chinese supply chains. Conversely, Smith and allies like Pierre Poilievre, leader of Canada’s Conservatives, echo Trump-era energy nationalism, framing hydrocarbons as tools for economic sovereignty.
Ultimately, the debate transcends Alberta or Canada. It encapsulates a global struggle to balance immediate economic gains with long-term sustainability—a struggle where narratives, as much as data, shape the future.